Boys' BORDERLAND 50: Part III—Tier 3 Prospects (No. 24–11)
On the Rise: Tier 3 Prospects No. 24–11 — Talent, Trust, Trajectory
This project continues with Part III of the Borderland 50—a deeper dive into Tier 3, featuring the top prospects ranked No. 24–11. These players have separated themselves from the pack with production, polish, and clear trajectories toward long-term success. Unlike earlier tiers built on flashes or projection, Tier 3 is rooted in consistency, leadership, and the ability to shape outcomes on both ends of the court.
This tier reflects players who already impact winning at a high level and whose roles will only expand in 2025–26. They are program cornerstones, matchup focal points, and in some cases, prospects whose recruiting stock is already on the rise. Their inclusion this high up the list isn’t speculative—it’s earned.
As a reminder: this list spans 45 varsity programs and over 600 players across El Paso County, Doña Ana County, and Alamogordo. To be ranked at all—let alone in Tier 3—puts a player in the top 5% of all varsity prospects in the region.
And as we draw closer to the top 10, the evaluations sharpen. The margin between players tightens, and the critiques become more precise. That’s by design. I’m committed to honest, research-based assessments backed by film, in-person observation, conversations with coaches and media, and a deep archive of regional context. In a basketball community where honest feedback is often withheld out of politeness, I believe transparency serves these players best—especially those with aspirations beyond high school.
Enjoy Part III.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
After playing spot minutes on Chapin’s deep bench in 2023–24, Keyshaun Lawrence emerged as one of the premier point-of-attack defenders in the Borderland. I named him First Team All-Defense in my Borderland Boys Awards, and it was one of the easiest decisions I made. Why? Because everything he showed on the defensive end as a junior was already visible in flashes as a sophomore—it’s what earned him floor time early, and it’s what makes him special now.
PROJECTING FORWARD
In 2025–26, Lawrence will take on a larger offensive role and be looked upon as one of Chapin’s key leaders. That might sound like a big leap but given the program’s proven track record of developing its players on schedule, I believe Lawrence is well-positioned to thrive. His foundation is there—it’s now about expanding his responsibilities.
GROWTH AREAS
There’s still much to learn about Lawrence as an offensive player. He hasn’t yet been tasked with consistently creating or scoring, so his development as a playmaker will be critical. That includes showing he can initiate and execute sets, attack off the bounce, and finish efficiently—both at the rim and from the perimeter. He’s already excellent at imposing his will defensively, but the next step is doing the same on offense—without mistaking aggression for forcing shots. If he can strike that balance, his overall game could level up fast.
RANKING RANGE
Lawrence’s defensive pedigree and the developmental structure around him at Chapin lock him firmly into the top 25, even if his current box score numbers trail others in this tier. His impact isn’t always loud—but it’s undeniable. If the offensive growth catches up, we could be looking at one of the Borderland’s top overall prospects by the end of next season.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
It’s hard to follow in the footsteps of an older sibling—and maybe even more daunting to start alongside them. But that wasn’t an issue for Julien Falk-Ramirez. The sophomore guard capitalized on increased minutes and defensive responsibilities, emerging as Eastwood’s lead perimeter defender. His lateral quickness, deep stance, and risky-but-effective aggression earned him First Team All-Defense in my Borderland Boys Awards. Offensively, his opportunities were limited, but he made the most of them, posting efficient shooting splits and a 54.4 TS%.
PROJECTING FORWARD
Eastwood will look very different in 2025–26. The team’s backbone—Devin Falk-Ramirez—is graduating, leaving a strong system without its most polished piece. That opens the door for JFR to scale his offensive volume and showcase what he can bring as a scorer and playmaker. The good news? He’s in a program that develops with intention, and he’s backed by parents who don’t just know the game—they’ve lived it and coach it. The structure around him is tailor-made for growth.
GROWTH AREAS
JFR’s offensive game will have the chance to expand through more reps and greater volume. To this point, most of his scoring has come within the flow of sets, in transition, or on spot-up catch-and-shoot chances. The next question is: what can he do as a creator? His confidence and aggression, even in limited bursts, suggest he’ll hold his own—even if the efficiency wavers early. If his offensive repertoire catches up to his defensive impact, he’ll be one of the most complete two-way prospects in the region—much like his brother.
RANKING RANGE
Tier 3 is the right placement for JFR. His energy and impact often transcend box score stats, and those who watch closely know exactly who he is. With two years left to grow and more responsibility coming, he’s firmly among the Borderland’s best—and still trending upward.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
After injuries derailed his freshman debut on varsity, Carlos Puente finally carved out a larger role during Chapin’s dominant 35–2 season. He provided meaningful depth off the bench—enough to earn Borderland Boys Bench Player of the Year. Whether he enjoyed that role or not, it’s rare to see a prospect of his talent embrace it, especially in an area where minutes, shots, and spotlight are often chased. I classify Puente as a wing, though his role occasionally pulled him into interior duties. Chapin’s depth is what makes them elite, and Puente is a prime example of how that depth translates to winning.
PROJECTING FORWARD
Puente won’t be coming off the bench next season—I can say that with full confidence. That shift will give us a clearer look at his full talent level with minutes and scaled production responsibility to match. You could argue he’s Chapin’s most talented returner, even if he doesn’t yet have the polish or varsity reps that some of the returning seniors possess.
GROWTH AREAS
An El Paso wing is a collegiate guard—and in that context, I’d love to see Puente expand his perimeter skillset. To this point, much of his production has come as a finisher using his near 6’3" frame inside. But the bigger question is: can he play make, pass, and handle as a tertiary option? I have no doubt he can score, but what will matter more moving forward is whether he can do the things around scoring—those complementary actions that carry just as much weight in a winning context.
RANKING RANGE
Tier 3 is more than appropriate for Puente. His ranking wasn’t earned through stat lines—it was earned through trust. Chapin’s faith in him goes back to last year, when he cracked the rotation as a freshman, which speaks volumes regardless of how injuries disrupted that trajectory. But next season, that trust will need to be validated through impact. Puente won’t be viewed as a luxury anymore—he’ll be a necessity. And I think he’s ready for it.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Sebastian Ruvalcaba remains one of the more underrated talents in the Borderland. He defends and scores in near equal measure, and on his best days, he’s right there with the top guards in the area. A double-digit scorer on low volume, he made the most of his opportunities with a measured and efficient offensive approach. He posted a 52.5 TS% and converted 52% of his 2-point field goals, thriving particularly in the mid-range where his touch and patience stood out.
PROJECTING FORWARD
To my knowledge, Ruvalcaba hasn’t committed or received offers at the next level—but that doesn’t mean he can’t play. With the right opportunity and system, he could absolutely contribute. Based on his high school production and tape, he has the fundamental skills to go into a program, develop, and find his role.
GROWTH AREAS
As much as I enjoyed watching him excel in the system he played in, I found myself wanting more—not necessarily more scoring, but more positional clarity. I wanted to see him operate as a lead guard, handling the ball and initiating offense more consistently. Instead, he functioned mostly off the ball, and while he was effective in that role, I don’t think it best served his long-term development. This isn’t a knock on his program—they made it work with what they had—but in a perfect scenario, Ruvalcaba would have been a full-time on-ball guard.
RANKING RANGE
Tier 3 is more than fitting for a player of Ruvalcaba’s talent and production. I moved him around within the tier during the process, but ultimately, just outside the top 20 felt right. His game has substance, and his ceiling—if placed in the right developmental context—is still very real.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Jacob Villalobos announced himself in 2024–25 as one of the top sophomores, top guards, and top overall prospects in the Borderland. Why? His offensive polish and efficiency were on par with the elite scorers and better than most guards in the region. He averaged 13.4 points per game on 44-35-78 shooting splits and posted an impressive 58.1 TS%. That true shooting percentage—14 percentage points higher than his raw FG%—is a textbook example of why we need to move beyond field goal percentage as a primary efficiency metric. This kid can score. And when 58% of his shots come from beyond the arc while still shooting 56% on 2s, that tells you everything you need to know about his offensive craft. He was the key piece in El Dorado’s turnaround season.
PROJECTING FORWARD
With this level of efficiency already in his bag, it’s hard not to see Villalobos evolving into a highly measured scoring machine over the next two years. Even if his efficiency dips as volume scales up, El Dorado fans are going to watch an elite three-level scorer develop right in front of them. His 5’9” frame might limit early interest from higher-level college programs—that’s common for Borderland prospects—but make no mistake: by 2027, Villalobos will be in the running for every major local accolade. His sophomore production makes the case.
GROWTH AREAS
If his scoring continues on the trajectory I project, the natural progression will be increased defensive attention. That means his next step is about court mapping and playmaking. Scoring point guards are valuable. But scoring point guards who can facilitate—who can map space, make reads, and raise the floor for others—are indispensable. Villalobos has a chance to be the latter. That evolution will not only raise his team’s ceiling, but also his stock with college recruiters.
RANKING RANGE
Villalobos’ Tier 3 placement feels justified, though you could easily argue he deserves to be higher given his classification. And that argument holds merit. But when comparing him to older prospects with more years of varsity production, No. 20 felt like the most responsible placement for now. That said, he’s not just ranked—he’s ascending. Villalobos is here to stay, and he’s climbing.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Gritty, grimy, and ultra-competitive—that’s RJ Lopez in a nutshell. But I’ll elaborate anyway. He was the heart and soul of Coronado’s turnaround season and playoff bid, driving the team with relentless effort and confident shot-making. He led the team in scoring, doing most of his damage within 12 feet—89% of his total attempts came inside the arc. And if tracking data existed, I’d bet most of those were drives and finishes, not midrange pull-ups. He played downhill, and he played hard.
PROJECTING FORWARD
With Coronado set to graduate nearly all of its depth, Lopez will take on significantly more responsibility as a senior. The question is: how will he handle it? Too often, players interpret added responsibility as license for more shots. But Lopez’s value can grow in other ways—by expanding his playmaking, leadership, and floor-reading ability. With younger teammates around him, there's a real opportunity to evolve beyond just a scoring mindset.
GROWTH AREAS
From a scoring standpoint, Lopez needs to add a perimeter layer to his game. He rarely took threes last season, instead leaning into his physicality and attacking instincts. But the best scorers are versatile scorers—threats at every level. Right now, he’s missing one. Additionally, as someone who commands the ball, he could benefit from better court mapping. Knowing where the help is coming from, and making the right read before the drive, would elevate his offensive ceiling. Sometimes a smart kick-out is more valuable than a contested finish.
RANKING RANGE
Lopez plays with a level of passion and competitive edge most players don’t—and you can’t teach that. He brought intangibles and stability to one of the deepest rotations in the Borderland, and he was the clear leader in Coronado’s 21-win campaign. His ranking reflects that impact. He belongs right where he is.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
I’ve said this before, and it bears repeating: Pichardo’s junior year was a masterclass in shot selection and efficiency. He averaged 15.2 points per game on a blistering 58.8 TS%—while hitting 41% from three on 143 attempts (4.5 per game). Nearly 40% of his total shots came from deep, and he maintained elite efficiency despite increased volume. In a slow-paced, methodical Trail Blazers offense built to control tempo and minimize bad possessions, his numbers could easily be misread—but you can’t gerrymander numbers like these. His 1.33 points per shot stands out in a region where most high-usage players hover below 1.0. And this isn’t just an offensive story—Pichardo played both ends with commitment and edge.
PROJECTING FORWARD
With one year left, the big question is how he follows up a season this clean. Americas is as systematized as it gets, and under head coach Mike Brooks, tempo will remain slow, and defense will remain non-negotiable. Most programs might loosen the reins for a player coming off a year like this—Brooks won’t. That’s not a knock necessarily; it’s the system. So how does Pichardo evolve in such an environment? By mastering the margins. If he repeats, or even slightly improves upon, what he did this season within that structure, it’ll be more than enough to raise his stock.
GROWTH AREAS
One blemish on an otherwise stellar stat line: free throw shooting. He hit 69% on 108 attempts—decent, but not elite, especially next to a 41% clip from three. The low volume (3.4 attempts per game) likely softened the blow, but if that number rises, so does the need for cleaner conversion. It’s a fixable area, and it’s one of the few areas left to sharpen in an already efficient offensive game.
RANKING RANGE
Pichardo thrives in a system that fits him—but that doesn’t mean he’s system-dependent. His combination of shooting efficiency, decision-making, and defensive effort would translate in most environments. That’s why he ranks this high. He does the hard stuff well—and makes it look easy.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Bird Nevarez is a gamer—a confident, poised, and tough shot-maker with swagger in spades. While Las Cruces doesn’t publish player statistics, I have no hesitation calling him one of the top scoring guards in the Borderland and an underrated prospect out of Southern New Mexico. He played a pivotal role in the Bulldogs' resurgence, routinely delivering in big moments. His 19-point season debut at Montwood set the tone—each bucket felt like a dagger. Since then, I’ve kept tabs, and the tape speaks clearly: this kid can go.
PROJECTING FORWARD
Whether or not Nevarez plans to pursue college basketball, he’s got the mental makeup to do so. His confidence isn’t just bravado—it’s functional. It fuels his game and gives him a shot to adjust at the next level, even if there’s a learning curve with size and speed. That edge—belief combined with ability—is a real asset if he continues to develop.
GROWTH AREAS
His pull-up game in the midrange is polished and effective. The next step is stretching that off-the-dribble package out beyond the arc. He’s not a poor shooter from deep, but his perimeter scoring still leans more spot-up than self-created. Adding that layer would not only diversify his shot profile but also create more room for him to work in the midrange, where he’s already strong. A deeper bag = a bigger court.
RANKING RANGE
I wish I had the stat sheet to go along with the eye test—because with hard numbers, Nevarez might land even higher… or perhaps lower. But based on film and matchups, being just outside the top 15 feels more than fair. He’s one of the best to come out of Las Cruces in recent years, and the tape backs that up.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Johan Camacho’s junior season was, statistically, one of the most dominant in the region. He averaged 23.6 points and 11.2 rebounds per game—making him the only Borderland player to post a 20-and-10 stat line—while shooting a blistering 62% on 2-point attempts. He overwhelmed 4A competition with sheer force and efficiency. If he didn’t score on the initial attempt, he grabbed his own miss. And if he didn’t do that, he likely drew a foul. Camacho was a three-outcome machine every time he touched the ball: bucket, board, or trip to the line.
PROJECTING FORWARD
Basketball may not be Camacho’s primary sport—possibly not even his second. He’s also a standout in football and apparently has shown flashes in baseball. Normally, I’d raise concerns about dividing development time across multiple sports. But with Camacho, it’s more about following passion than refining projection. If he chooses a different path for college athletics, it’s understandable—and likely the best call.
GROWTH AREAS
At 6'4" with a strong frame, Camacho punishes defenders in the paint. But that same physicality hasn’t yet translated to the defensive end. He has the tools to be a more disruptive rim protector and rebounder, but that requires precision, timing, and intent—not just strength. His 5.3 turnovers per game are also a red flag, especially for a non-guard. The assist-to-turnover ratio is heavily negative, and a lot of that stems from trying to do too much. Let the guards work—move off the ball, trust the system, and the touches will still come.
RANKING RANGE
So why is a 20-10 force with elite efficiency placed in Tier 3? Context. Camacho plays in 1-4A—a district with just five teams and generally low competition. That’s not a knock on the player, but it does demand careful framing and contextualization. Would he put up the same numbers in 6A? No—but that doesn’t mean he’d be a lesser player. In fact, it might highlight different parts of his game and elucidate his true value. Every time I saw him play, I came away thinking two things: he dominates doing whatever he wants, and I wish he had tougher matchups.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
The first of two freshmen to crack the top 50, Jayden Brisby is the latest long-term prospect emerging from Las Cruces. He's springy, agile, and already has a knack for making an interior impact. Though still raw, his in-person production stood out—especially his offensive rebounding, where he excelled at a level rare for a 6’2” freshman. He was one of the best second-chance finishers I saw all season.
PROJECTING FORWARD
Brisby has a long developmental runway ahead, but the foundation is exciting. Right now, he's an athletic interior finisher with game-changing energy. What elevates his trajectory is the program around him. Under William Benjamin—a coach who’s produced elite teams and college-level talent—Brisby is in the right hands. He’ll be coached hard, held accountable, and taught to value winning over stat lines. I haven’t seen enough to fully project his ceiling, but the early signs point to a kid with real collegiate potential.
GROWTH AREAS
The next step in Brisby’s development is expanding his game away from the paint. That includes tighter ball handling, smoother movement downhill, and a more composed finishing touch. Right now, he tends to barrel into defenders—a style that works at times but will need refinement. Adding more nuance to his drives and decision-making will raise both his floor and ceiling.
RANKING RANGE
Tier 3 and a top 15 placement is as high as I could justify at this stage—and it’s earned. His inclusion this high isn’t just about upside; it’s about what he’s already doing as a freshman. There are more polished prospects both above and below him, but very few have three full years left to keep leveling up. Jayden Brisby is a name to remember.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Was it a level up or just increased opportunity? That’s what I kept asking myself while watching Ray Venegas this season. But after reviewing the numbers, the answer became clear—his shot volume barely changed from junior to senior year, increasing by just one attempt per game. So yes, it was a true level up. Venegas raised both his 3-point and free throw percentages by six points, all while maintaining a similar workload. And this isn’t your typical catch-and-shoot wing—Venegas is long, athletic, and comfortable creating his own shot off the dribble.
PROJECTING FORWARD
Venegas can absolutely play at the next level. He’s battle-tested too—Organ Mountain plays a tough slate, regularly facing elite Northern New Mexico programs and prospects. He’s received offers from Sussex CCC, Principia College, and Minnesota West, though to my knowledge he remains unsigned.
GROWTH AREAS
While the scoring took a clear step forward, his overall impact didn’t always scale with it. That was more evident as a junior when he was confined to a limited role, but even as a senior, there were stretches where you wanted to see him impose himself more—especially defensively. At 6’5’’ with real length, he has the physical tools to be more disruptive. Unlocking that side of his game will be key at the next level.
RANKING RANGE
Improved efficiency on a tough shot profile, paired with college-ready measurables and athleticism, earned Venegas a major bump in this year’s rankings. He’s also a proven winner—92 career victories across four varsity seasons. That matters, especially in New Mexico, where programs play fewer games than their Texas counterparts.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Brody John is an undeniable talent—skilled, confident, and volatile. He plays with emotion and shows all of himself each time he steps on the court—the brilliance and the turbulence. As a scorer, he’s elite in the mid-range. He converted 52% of his 265 two-point attempts, often creating space with ease while drawing contact and trips to the charity stripe at a high rate. Confidence is not in short supply, and neither is belief in his ability to take over. He’s also had the benefit of playing in a respected, playoff-regular program that gave him a platform to showcase his strengths.
PROJECTING FORWARD
John has the tools to play at the next level. With a strong frame, solid fundamentals, and a scoring skillset tailored for the wing, he fits a college mold. But he’ll need the right program—one that sees his competitive edge not as a liability but as a trait to be shaped. He wants to score, he wants to lead, and he clearly wants to win. Channeling that energy into more consistent, productive outcomes will be essential.
GROWTH AREAS
Mental composure is the next step. John’s emotional investment is clear—but the way it manifests needs refinement. His body language, both verbal and non-verbal, has to improve. Reactions to teammates’ mistakes, visible frustration with turnovers, or missed shots can all send the wrong message, even if unintentional. These moments add up, and they matter—especially to coaches and evaluators looking for signs of maturity, leadership, and poise under pressure. None of this takes away from his competitiveness or talent, but growth in how he carries himself could unlock more trust, more opportunity, and ultimately, more impact. That said, it comes from a place of care. His disengagement stems from deep investment. The challenge will be turning that investment into poise. With the right coaching and environment, this growth is well within reach. The talent is there. So is the will.
RANKING RANGE
There are valid critiques, but John’s upside is rare. A 6’5” Borderland wing with this kind of mid-range precision and competitive confidence is not something you see every year. Even with the volatility, the flashes are real, and the path to growth is clear. His placement reflects both the talent on display and the belief that his best basketball still lies ahead.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Carmyne Mychackavane is one of the more fascinating sophomores in the Borderland. He was, by my estimation, Andress’ most consistent presence this past season—offering a blend of interior scoring and occasional floor spacing. Built with a sturdy 6’4’’ frame, he moves with more agility and footwork polish than you’d expect. He can bang inside, but he’s not just a bruiser—there’s finesse in how he operates.
PROJECTING FORWARD
Here’s where it gets interesting. Mychackavane has a long runway to keep refining his game, and I believe he’ll be an elite-tier prospect by his senior year. But his post–high school projection is trickier. At 6’4’’, his value as a big likely doesn’t translate at the next level. That makes a transition to the wing essential. The question is whether he’ll get the reps to develop that profile, given how effective he already is around the basket for Andress.
GROWTH AREAS
To maximize his long-term potential, Mychackavane needs to expand his perimeter game. That means tighter ball handling, better reads off the bounce, and an off-the-dribble shooting package. His mid-post scoring is a strength, but he plays in a region thin on size—so projection must be grounded in how he would look against longer, more athletic defenders. Playing as a wing isn't just ideal—it’s necessary.
RANKING RANGE
Just outside the top 10 feels right for now. Game-to-game, his production and impact can fluctuate, but the underlying talent is obvious. His next two seasons will determine whether he rises into the elite tier or remains a matchup problem limited by role. Right now, he’s a sophomore ranked above more polished upperclassmen—for good reason.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
For a prospect whose high school career was largely disrupted by injury, CJ Quirino made the most of his senior year. He played with urgency, downhill aggression, and relentless effort—often leaving defenders trailing instead of dictating his path. While official stats aren’t available, I’d wager he scored more paint points than any guard in the Borderland by a wide margin. His finishing ability, body control, and physicality made him a rare breed: a true interior scorer at the guard spot.
PROJECTING FORWARD
Quirino’s limited varsity résumé can be seen two ways—but I’ll lean toward the upside. His best basketball is still ahead of him. I saw it firsthand at the preseason Jamboree Showcase—he looked like a college-level athlete still finding his rhythm. As the season progressed, so did his confidence, control, and finishing conversion. He’s a vertical leaper with a sharp first step, and when defenders failed to anticipate his drives, they paid the price.
GROWTH AREAS
The next step is diversification. Quirino thrives getting downhill and drawing contact, but his shot profile was among the narrowest I’ve seen for a guard. He rarely pulled up, even from the mid-range, and that’s an issue at the next level where spacing and versatility are prerequisites. If defenders can load the paint without fearing a jumper, his greatest weapon becomes easier to neutralize. A reliable mid-range and catch-and-shoot three would unlock his full offensive potential. His access to the paint would open up if he allowed himself to attempt and even miss more from 14 feet and beyond.
RANKING RANGE
Quirino closes out Tier 3 and narrowly misses the top 10. That’s less about flaws and more about sample size—most ranked above him have two or more years of tape and a broader offensive profile. But in terms of ceiling, Quirino might have as much room to grow as anyone in this top 50. We haven’t seen his best yet—not even close.