Girls' BORDERLAND 50: Part III—Tier 3 Prospects (No. 25–11)
With Tiers 5 and 4 behind us, we now enter Tier 3—where production meets projection. These are the players who’ve shown more than just flashes; they’ve built resumes that hold weight and ceilings that demand attention.
At this level, consistency becomes more than a buzzword—it’s a separator. These prospects have carved out real roles, often as focal points of their teams, and their tape reflects both polish and upward momentum. Tier 3 isn’t just about potential anymore—it’s about proving it against meaningful competition.
This project stems from months of live coverage, film study, and dialogue with coaches, players, and parents. Since the 2023–24 season began, I’ve watched over 200 games—each ranked player has been seen at least four times.
The Borderland covers public and private high school programs in El Paso County, Doña Ana County, and Alamogordo, which competes in-district with Las Cruces schools. Players are evaluated through the lens of their high school careers. Projection and AAU context matter, but varsity production, role, and development are the foundation.
Overall Skillset – What tools do they have, and how well are they applied?
Impact on Winning – What’s their role, and how does it influence team success?
Long-Term Projection – How much room is left to grow, especially by class?
Across 45 varsity programs and a pool of over 600 players, these 50 prospects fall in the top 8th percentile. Whether you believe a player is too high, too low, or misjudged—just being ranked is a meaningful recognition of impact.
As we move closer to the top of the list, the evaluations naturally become more in-depth—and the critiques, more direct. My goal is to provide honest, well-rounded assessments grounded in research, data, and lived observation, often shaped by conversations with those closest to the game. These critiques matter because they fill a gap in our basketball community—where we often avoid saying what needs to be said about a player’s deficits, gaps, and overall talent. The goal isn’t to undercut. It’s to give real, constructive feedback that helps these players grow.
Enjoy Part III.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Tier 3 opens with one of the most well-rounded and experienced prospects in the Borderland: Daisy Fernandez. A true four-year varsity contributor, she helped lead Hanks to 72 wins and a 40–8 mark in 2-5A district play. Her impact was felt across the board—scoring, rebounding, and stocks. As a junior, she was the only player I identified to average at least 1.8 steals and 1.8 blocks. At 5’10” with good speed, she made her presence felt both on the perimeter and in the paint.
PROJECTING FORWARD
Fernandez is headed to Sul Ross State University, which just completed its first year in the Lone Star Conference as a transitioning Division II program. Last season’s struggles (2 wins) reflect the challenge of building at that level, but Fernandez’s length and versatility make her a valuable addition. With a young roster in place, whether she breaks into the rotation early remains to be seen—but she’ll be playing for a strong coach and could blossom as a collegiate player.
GROWTH AREAS
Developing as an on-ball creator would significantly elevate Fernandez’s game. She posted a negative assist-to-turnover ratio all four years at Hanks. While playmaking wasn’t her primary role, it highlights her need to improve decision-making and ball handling. At the DII level, tighter spacing and stronger on-ball pressure will test those areas immediately.
RANKING RANGE
Fernandez is a clear Top 25 selection, no question. What keeps her just outside the Top 20 is a noticeable dip in production against elite Borderland programs. Her game-to-game numbers were consistent over the past three years, but her biggest performances often came against district or lower-level programs.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
The spine of 2-4A powerhouse Riverside, AJ Alvarado is a prospect defined by progression. Her senior year marked a breakout—improving as a finisher, nearly doubling her steal rate, and posting one of the highest stocks-per-game marks in the Borderland. While much of Riverside’s production came from the mid-range and perimeter, Alvarado provided a crucial interior changeup.
PROJECTING FORWARD
Alvarado isn’t a traditional big—and she knows it. That self-awareness makes her next step all the more promising. She’s headed to Wyoming to play for Gillette College, a strong NJCAA DI program coming off a 23-win season. The Pronghorns offer a developmental path with high-level competition, and the chance to evolve her positional identity could be a game-changer.
GROWTH AREAS
This is a niche one: screening. Riverside struggled with turnovers, much of it tied to poor on-ball structure and ineffective off-ball movement. Alvarado often floated on the perimeter to space the floor, but her movement didn’t always serve a clear purpose. Part of that falls on coaching—if your six-foot post doesn’t shoot, why is she stationed beyond the arc in the first place? She’d be better served initiating screens from the paint out toward the perimeter, but too often she found herself stuck outside or at the nail, creating a logjam with no weakside spacing or coordinated action. It was a positional and spacing mess at times. Sharpening her screening angles, timing, and communication—especially as a pick-and-pop option—would elevate both her game and her team’s flow. So many scoring opportunities can flow from improved screening: slipping against hedges, popping for short jumpers, or sealing for clean post entries. She has the tools to become a much more reliable release valve.
RANKING RANGE
Alvarado lands inside the Top 25 due to her late-stage upside and senior-year leap around the basket. While other bigs posted better box score efficiency, her blend of size, emerging versatility, and post–high school trajectory suggests a higher growth ceiling. Among the 2025 class, she’s one of the most intriguing long-term bets.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Karina Ramos-Jurado is an exciting prospect with upside and scalable skill. By my estimation, she was Eastlake’s best player in 2024–25. Though not without inefficiencies, she was central to the Falcons’ 8-win improvement. A true 3-point gunner—42% of her shots came from beyond the arc—KRJ can shift momentum quickly when she’s in rhythm.
PROJECTING FORWARD
With one year left, Ramos-Jurado has a chance to go out with a bang. A slight dip in 6A talent next season opens the door for Eastlake to make a playoff push, and KRJ will be key to that effort. Head coach Marlee Webb clearly trusts her—giving her the green light offensively—which she can fully capitalize on with smarter shot selection and more polish. If she levels up, she has the tools to become one of the top 6A guards in the area.
GROWTH AREAS
Like her backcourt mate Ari Galvan, KRJ would benefit from exploiting the wide-open gaps between the arc and the paint. She’s shown flashes of deep shot making, but diversifying her shot profile is the next step. It’s not about pulling back on threes—it’s about choosing better ones and recognizing when easier shots are available in the mid-range.
RANKING RANGE
KRJ’s upside, her potential for growth, and her impact on winning make her a strong Top 25 selection. She’s just as talented as the guards ahead of her, but decision-making, efficiency, and defensive consistency are where they edged her out—for now.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Aggressive, relentless, and much improved in 2024–25—that’s the best way to describe Jaedyn Herrera. The junior guard was a finalist for Most Improved Player and earned 1st Team All-Defense honors in my Girls Borderland Basketball Awards. She plays in an excellent system that maximized its lack of size and avoided being punished for it. Americas was the most dominant Borderland program in and out of district play, and Herrera played a huge role.
PROJECTING FORWARD
Herrera took a major leap this season, but her ceiling is even higher heading into 2025–26. Americas returns its entire starting five, while most top 2-5A programs are set to dip. The biggest challenge for Herrera now? Continuing to grow in games that won’t always be competitive.
GROWTH AREAS
Herrera’s efficiency surged this season—her FG% rose 13 points, and her 3P% doubled from 16% to 32%. She scaled her total shot volume by 26% and 3-point volume by 29%. Improving efficiency while increasing volume is a real signal. She also flipped her assist-to-turnover ratio from a negative (3.6:4.0) to a clear positive (3.2:2.1)—a 68.9% improvement. That kind of leap reflects sharper reads, more control, and a higher comfort level as a decision-maker. It’s evidence of maturity, not just productivity.
That said, there’s still another level. Shot selection and a reliable mid-range jumper could elevate her entire offensive profile. The 3-point gains are legitimate, but they appear context-dependent—driven by system flow, spacing, and rhythm looks. Her 47% free throw mark (78 attempts) reinforces that concern, signaling a lack of consistent shooting touch. It’s a key indicator that her 3-point accuracy doesn’t fully translate outside of favorable conditions. In isolation, she's not yet a reliable shooter. At her size, relying more on upper-body mechanics to generate range explains the inconsistency—front rim, back rim, and everything in between. Developing an efficient in-between game would expand her scoring profile and make her much harder to scheme against—especially given how fast she is with the ball. If there’s one thing she should focus on this summer while getting reps with EP Heart, it’s studying film of Jordan Sapien. Specifically, how the Pebble Hills guard navigates traffic, initiates contact and shields herself from getting blocked inside 10 feet against bigger defenders. Herrera has the speed—what she needs now is control and spatial manipulation.
RANKING RANGE
Herrera lands just outside the top 20 due to the more complete shot creation profiles of the guards ahead of her. While she excels in catch-and-shoot and off-ball reads, creating in the halfcourt remains a key growth area. She’s already one of the most impactful defenders and system guards in the area—if the offensive polish comes, she becomes one of the most complete players in the class.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Jocelynn Custard wasn’t on my radar entering the season, but that changed quickly after I saw her at the preseason Jamboree Showcase. She made an immediate impression—and kept my attention all year. A double-digit scorer, steady rebounder, and high-effort defender, Custard was a key contributor to Montwood’s playoff push and one of the biggest revelations in 6A.
PROJECTING FORWARD
The 2025–26 season will be pivotal for both Custard and Montwood. The Rams enter as district favorites, and another year of varsity experience could elevate her into a leading role. At times this past season, she looked like a newcomer—which made her impact all the more impressive. With more reps and composure, her game could take a major leap.
GROWTH AREAS
There’s plenty of room for growth—and that’s a good thing. Custard was impactful even with clear areas to refine. The most pressing is the mental side of the game. Her frustration often showed, affecting shot selection, decision-making, and defensive focus. It didn’t derail her, but it disrupted her rhythm. If she channels that edge into controlled aggression, she has the tools to be the best player on the floor.
Free throw shooting also needs work—she shot just 46% on 95 attempts. With focused reps on rhythm, timing, and touch, that number can climb. Montwood was one of the weakest playoff teams at the line, so her improvement there could be doubly impactful.
RANKING RANGE
Custard is a high-variance, high-upside prospect. Some nights, she looked like the best player on the court. Other games, she struggled to stay afloat. But her ceiling is undeniable—which is why she flirts with the Top 20.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
The Eastlake player with the most upside is Evani Valdez. She’s a fluid, agile athlete with flashes of major potential. When things clicked alongside backcourt mates Ari Galvan and Karina Ramos-Jurado, the trio showed real promise—even if only in brief stretches. Valdez served as a pace-setter, double-digit scorer, and opportunistic defensive playmaker throughout the season.
PROJECTING FORWARD
These rankings are as much about trajectory as they are about current production, and Valdez’s long-term runway is considerable. With two years left, she has a real chance to develop into an elite, savvy point guard by 2027. Her junior season could be a launching pad, especially with a capable and improving senior core around her. Even when the roster thins out her senior year, that adversity could sharpen her leadership. Most importantly, she plays under one of the better coaches in the city—someone who brings structure and accountability, which isn’t always a given in this area.
GROWTH AREAS
I’ve already addressed some overlapping concerns with her Eastlake teammates, so I’ll focus here on Valdez’s specific development points. First, she needs to embrace the mid-range. That doesn’t mean abandoning the three-point shot—but dialing it back and leaning more on touch-based scoring where there’s more space would elevate her offensive profile.
Defensively, she has to become more disciplined. As the team’s lead point-of-attack defender, her primary responsibility is to contain dribble penetration. When she gambles for steals, overextends, or reaches without recovering, it disrupts Eastlake’s defensive shell. These moments expose a breakdown in her fundamentals.
This is especially true in transition. She’s not solely to blame—Eastlake struggles with defensive structure at times—but as the lead guard, she’s at the tip of the spear. Her job in those moments is to recover and get between the ball and the rim—not trail the play or makeup for a turnover by poking around for steals. Containment begins with angling the ball handler to the sideline or into help—not giving them downhill access to the middle. That requires IQ, communication, and discipline—all non-negotiables at the point guard position.
I strongly recommend she study Devin Falk-Ramirez’s tape. The Eastwood guard is the most fundamentally sound perimeter defender I’ve scouted—and his game film is easy to find. In specific, she should pay attention to how little he gambles and yet, how impactful he is because of it. There’s a blueprint for how she can mature into a complete two-way guard.
RANKING RANGE
There are players ranked below Valdez who had better 2024–25 seasons. But few offer her athletic upside, positional projection, and two-year growth window. I’d bet confidently that by the time this class graduates, Valdez will be one of the top 2027 prospects in the Borderland.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Like her backcourt mate Jaedyn Herrera, Kaylan Medrano plays with relentless pace, defensive energy, and an aggressive perimeter shot profile. She earned First Team All-Defense honors in my Girls Borderland Basketball Awards after averaging 4.2 steals per game while committing just 1.3 fouls—a remarkable 3.23 steal-to-foul ratio that reflects elite on-ball discipline without sacrificing pressure. Americas runs a full-court 1-2-1-1 diamond press and shifts into a 1-2-2 zone as its halfcourt base—Medrano thrives as the point defender in both. Her speed and instincts allow her to disrupt passing lanes while staying within structure. Every starter in that defense moves with intention—no freelancing—and Medrano is one of its anchors. It’s the most sound and effective zone defense in the region, and opponents rarely exploit its seams. She also improved her 2-point field goal efficiency by 11 percentage points, adding scoring value to her defensive identity. Americas dominated in 2024–25, and Medrano was central to that success.
PROJECTING FORWARD
With one season left, Medrano has a clear opportunity to level up as the Trail Blazers return their core intact. The wins will keep coming—but her growth will hinge on internal development. If she can continue improving her shooting efficiency while sustaining her elite defensive pressure, opponents will struggle to stay in games with her on the floor.
GROWTH AREAS
As noted with other perimeter players, Medrano would benefit from diversifying her shot profile. Half of her field goal attempts come from beyond the arc, where she improved slightly—from 27% as a sophomore to 29% as a junior. Given how effectively Americas generates clean looks through drive-and-kick action, she shouldn’t hesitate on open threes. When her shot is falling, it stretches the floor and creates space for others—her spacing does matter. But when it’s not, using a counter more frequently—like an off-the-dribble pull-up or floater—would elevate her scoring versatility. Also worth noting: her 48.2% free throw percentage across two seasons (114 attempts) reinforces the idea that she’s still developing consistency in feel and touch, traits often tied to rhythm-based shooting.
RANKING RANGE
At No. 19, Medrano lands exactly where she should—firmly among the Borderland’s best, but just outside the top tier reserved for more multidimensional guards. She’s going to have an excellent senior season, but the real question is whether she can continue evolving during games that may not be competitive. How she grows within those margins will determine just how far she climbs.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
The top prospect coming out of Montwood is Mia Hairston, a 2026 guard who’s been one of the most productive players in 6A basketball since her freshman year. She’s an aggressive scorer who consistently gets to the middle, and while her overall shot volume dipped this season, her conversion rate remained steady. One of her most impressive leaps in 2024–25 was cutting her turnovers from 5.2 to 3.3 per game—a 36.5% decrease. That steady year-to-year improvement is huge, especially given her heavy on-ball responsibilities.
PROJECTING FORWARD
With one year left, Hairston has a chance to make real noise. Montwood’s core remains intact, giving her a stable foundation to work from. She’s clearly a future collegiate player—the question is whether she can elevate her recruiting profile next season. The Rams are talented enough to win games even if Hairston maintains her current level, which could create a misleading impression about her individual growth. Her next step is impact-based: can she elevate those around her?
GROWTH AREAS
Efficiency is the big swing factor. Hairston has consistently produced volume, but not at an efficient clip—yet. She shot just 42% on twos despite frequently getting to her spots inside the arc. Her 3-point percentage sits below 30%, though she doesn’t rely too heavily on it. The next evolution in her game is becoming more clinical from 10 feet and in—more deliberate, less rushed. On film, there were moments where she forced shots simply because space opened up, even when it meant a lightly contested 17-footer. The reads and touch just weren’t always synced. Also, while she’s decreased her turnovers each year, she still hasn’t posted a positive assist-to-turnover ratio. Flipping that ratio would mark a major leap in her decision-making and offensive command.
RANKING RANGE
You could make a case for Hairston to be ranked even higher, and I wouldn’t push back hard. Few 6A players have matched her production over the last three years. Her impact is real. If she sharpens her efficiency and grows more precise in her playmaking, she’ll be in Tier 2 discussion heading into 2025–26.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Emma Balsiger’s placement on this list sparked a lot of conversation—and for good reason. Her pedigree is legit, and the expectation heading into her senior year was that she’d peak. But that moment never quite came. Even so, she helped lead Franklin to 22 wins and an area-round appearance. Her overall production was still strong, even if her efficiency dipped in places. And let’s be honest—Franklin isn’t a 20-win team, let alone a playoff qualifier, without her.
PROJECTING FORWARD
Balsiger was once one of the most heavily recruited prospects in the region, thanks in large part to a breakout sophomore season that included 40% shooting from deep. But she’s also an elite student with a GPA well above 4.0 and academic opportunities most athletes don’t have. She’s chosen to pursue those instead of college basketball—and that’s not a knock. Anyone familiar with her story knows she’s always had options beyond the court.
GROWTH AREAS
None. She’s likely played her final competitive game, and projecting out improvements for someone who’s moved on wouldn’t be honest or productive.
RANKING RANGE
So, this all begs the question: how can I have a prospect ranked this high who had a down senior season and isn’t even playing college basketball? And doesn’t her inclusion in the Top 50 contradict the very ethos of this project? Fair critiques—but here’s why I stand by it.
Yes, Balsiger experienced a statistical decline this season. But even then, she still averaged 14 points and 5 rebounds per game, posted a 45.5 TS%, and had both a positive assist-to-turnover ratio and a positive steal-to-foul ratio. That’s not nothing. In fact, those numbers remain well above the median line in this area. If your standard is 45-35-70 splits on reasonable volume, then sure, you might push her down the list. But in the Borderland, the realistic average for top-level guards is closer to 38-28-60. That may sound low, but it reflects the actual data. And if you doubt that, go comb through the numbers yourself. Even in a regression year, Balsiger was still on par with—or better than—roughly 95% of a 600-player pool across more than 40 programs. Very few players can claim a “down year” that still ranks that high.
Second, her decision to step away from the sport doesn’t invalidate her performance. She’s not the only 2025 opting out of college hoops to make this list, and few below her had the types of offers she turned down. Her ranking reflects both performance and pedigree. That she’s choosing a different path doesn’t erase the player she was.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Olivia White is right on the cusp of the Top 15 and rightfully so as one of the best Bigs in the Borderland and a major force in 6A basketball. Unfortunately, her season was cut short due to a late injury, but her 20-game sample was more than enough to show her value: 12 points, 9 rebounds, and 1.0 blocks per game on 50% shooting from the field. If White had remained healthy, Pebble Hills likely runs the table in district play—underscoring both her impact and how complete the Spartans were in 2024–25.
PROJECTING FORWARD
White has signed with York University in York, Nebraska—an NAIA program in the Kansas Collegiate Athletic Conference (KCAC). The Panthers went 9–16 last season and struggled in two specific areas where White can immediately help: rebounding and interior defense. She anchored the paint all season for Pebble Hills and was among the Borderland’s best rebounders, offering a college-ready frame and rebounding instincts that should translate right away at the NAIA level.
GROWTH AREAS
What separates White from bigs ranked below her is that she was consistently efficient inside—hitting 50% of her 160 field goal attempts—and she converted at the line at a 64% clip. That may not jump out nationally, but locally, it’s better than many guards and wings in the area. Still, there’s room to grow, particularly on the defensive end. White averaged 2.8 fouls per game, and while that isn’t outrageous over a 32-minute game, she likely wasn’t logging that full allotment. Estimating her around 26 minutes per game, that foul rate suggests occasional struggles with positioning and vertical discipline. To thrive at the next level, she’ll need to keep improving her footwork, stay grounded through contact, and avoid unnecessary reach-ins or hip checks on post seals and drives. The raw tools are there—it's just about refinement.
RANKING RANGE
White ranks high because her value was immense. That was clearest in Pebble Hills’ regular-season finale against Franklin. With her out, Franklin’s top guard, Allison De La O, repeatedly got into the paint with little resistance. It was an Olivia White-sized hole, and it turned what could’ve been a statement win into a frustrating loss. That’s the kind of impact you can’t fully measure in the box score but shows up everywhere on film.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
It was a season of contrasting results for Teeya Gordon and Alamogordo. The Tigers won just five games—a sharp decline from their 15-win 2023–24 playoff run—but Gordon’s individual impact never wavered. She carried one of the heaviest two-way loads in the Borderland: 14.5 points, 11.4 rebounds (including nearly six offensive boards), and 1.4 blocks per game while converting 58% of her 2-point attempts. She was the focal point of every possession and the backbone of Alamogordo’s defensive efforts. What stood out most was how reliable she remained despite constant adversity. From entry passes to basic floor spacing, Gordon operated in a system that lacked polish—through no fault of her own. The roster was young, inexperienced, and rebuilding. Her production, in that context, was exceptional.
PROJECTING FORWARD
Gordon will continue her career at Western New Mexico University, a setting that should elevate her game. With more stable guard play and tougher, more structured competition, she’ll finally be freed from the chaos she had to navigate nightly. That kind of environment will raise her floor through better teammates and raise her ceiling through better opposition. She has the motor, frame, and interior scoring efficiency to carve out a real college role. The question now is whether she can scale that role to become a centerpiece, not just a contributor.
GROWTH AREAS
Free throw shooting is the most urgent area for improvement. With her physicality and activity on the offensive glass, Gordon gets to the line a lot—146 attempts as a senior. But she only converted 47% of them, leaving nearly 4 points per game on the table. That’s not a small margin—it’s a major swing stat that affects efficiency, floor time, and closing-lineup viability at the next level. What’s encouraging is that her misses don’t look unfixable. Her touch is inconsistent, and her mechanics need fine-tuning, but this doesn’t appear to be a mental or confidence issue. If she can climb into the 62–65% range, her college value skyrockets. She’ll be far harder to game plan around, and far more trusted in late-game moments.
RANKING RANGE
Gordon absolutely belongs among the Borderland’s best. At different points in the process, I had her ranked even higher. Ultimately, she slots here because others above her either have longer-term upside or possess a standout trait that might translate more cleanly to higher levels. But few players in this class were more consistently impactful than Gordon, and none had to shoulder more while doing it.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Jasmine Blake was the engine behind a six-win turnaround at Chapin, filling every gap the team had. Her scoring, playmaking, defensive activity, energy, and positional versatility were essential — and the weaknesses were minimal. She led Chapin in scoring, steals, points per shot (PPS), and field goal percentage. With one starting guard ineligible due to transfer rules and another adjusting slowly, Blake stepped into the lead guard role and handled it with maturity. Without her, Chapin wouldn’t have been in the district title picture.
PROJECTING FORWARD
Blake’s athletic upside makes her one of the more intriguing long-term bets in this class. Her straight-line speed in transition is elite — she covers ground like a collegiate guard. She’s headed to Florida State College at Jacksonville (FSCJ), a JUCO program where she can hopefully develop within their infrastructure. It’s a smart fit. Five of FSCJ’s top seven scorers are moving on, giving Blake a legitimate shot to earn minutes early. If she can tighten her handle and round out her scoring game, her ceiling at the JUCO level — and potentially beyond — rises substantially.
GROWTH AREAS
The most urgent growth area is ball handling. To her credit, Blake’s handle improved over the course of the season, but her right hand remains a clear limitation. She has the speed — high-major level in the open court — but lacks directional control. Defenders can load up on her left, force her to pick up early, and cut off her best angles. That predictability stalls possessions and reduces her effectiveness as a primary creator. Most pull-up shooters are more comfortable going toward their non-dominant hand, but Blake’s weak right handle makes that unavailable. Developing her off-hand would open up both scoring and playmaking, especially in space.
Shooting is the second concern. Her shot lacks repetition and mechanical consistency. The form resembles a one-handed push shot or floater, especially at the free throw line. Her right hand contributes little to the release, reducing balance and directional control. She relies too much on her shoulder for power instead of using her whole body in a smooth, connected motion. That makes her shot flatter and less consistent, especially from longer distances. With more reps and a focus on rebuilding her form — including wrist snap and full follow-through — would pay significant dividends.
Defensively, Blake’s energy is a strength, but she needs to stay grounded when defending gaps and jumping passing lanes. She has a habit of leaving her feet to contest passes or gamble for steals, which more patient offenses will exploit.
RANKING RANGE
Blake is rawer than most players in the top 15, but her physical tools and motor give her a projection window few can match. If she commits to skill development — especially in her handle and shooting form — her impact could outpace others currently ranked ahead of her. There’s real variance here, but also real upside.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
It was a mixed season for Victoria Duran — but not in the traditional sense. She remained a key contributor for one of the top programs in the Borderland and continued to impact games in ways that don’t always show up in scoring totals. What stood out, however, was a notable dip in shooting efficiency — a rare trend for a seasoned guard at this stage. Even with the scoring regression, Duran led the Troopers in assists and steals, while maintaining a positive assist-to-turnover ratio.
PROJECTING FORWARD
Duran’s role is only going to grow with the graduation of Eastwood’s 2025 class. That means more shot attempts, more ball-handling, and a larger leadership responsibility. She’s capable of meeting all three. Her toughness, poise, and team-first style give her a high floor as a senior guard who can anchor a program on both ends.
GROWTH AREAS
The shooting decline this past season was notable — a 10-point drop in field goal percentage, even as her volume slightly increased. The numbers suggest the issue wasn’t mechanical as much as it was situational: shot selection. Inside the paint, she often forced shots in traffic or rushed attempts without balance. That kind of aggression was often necessary — Eastwood struggled in the halfcourt against zones — but forced drives rarely yield efficient outcomes. Many of those attempts lacked rhythm and control, often looking more like throws than composed finishes.
This is a common pattern among Borderland guards — aggressive drivers with no consistent in-between game. For Duran, developing a pull-up jumper in the soft spots between the nail and deep paint would be a major upgrade. Getting her feet under her and shoulders squared before the release would lead to far better outcomes than tough, heavily contested rim attempts.
Her free throw shooting also needs refinement. She tends to back-rim often, which reflects a lack of touch. Mechanically, her kinetic chain leans slightly forward, which causes her shot to flow diagonally rather than vertically. That forward slant reduces arc and makes soft makes less likely. A straighter shot path and more upright balance would lead to cleaner, more forgiving misses — and ultimately better consistency.
RANKING RANGE
While much of this evaluation has focused on what needs to improve, it’s important to say why Duran still ranks near the top of Tier 3. What stands out most is her resilience. Plenty of players shut down when the shot isn’t falling — Duran doesn’t. She keeps playing, keeps impacting, keeps leading. She facilitates, defends, and brings sustained energy every game. That’s the definition of a winning player — and it’s why she holds her spot in this tier.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Lorrena Viarreal is one of those do-it-all wings who quietly drives winning. She’s been a key piece for Mayfield — one of Southern New Mexico’s top programs — during a dominant two-year stretch that included back-to-back 3-5A district titles (19–1 record) and a 48–10 overall mark. Viarreal’s impact isn’t tied to scoring. She defends multiple positions, makes plays in transition, and blocks shots at an impressive rate for a wing. Her scoring was secondary — she’s the highest-ranked single-digit scorer left on the list — but the physical tools and instincts are there to build out a more complete offensive profile.
PROJECTING FORWARD
Viarreal committed to Eastern Wyoming College in April, though no official signing has been confirmed. If she’s on campus, she’s in a good developmental environment. The Lancers are in transition with a new head coach and coming off a rebuilding year, but the JUCO route fits her trajectory. It gives her time to refine the fundamentals and round out her game. With her athleticism, defensive instincts, and versatility, she has a chance to earn early minutes. If she commits to consistent skill work, the long-term payoff is a more complete, polished 3-and-D wing ready to contribute at the next level.
GROWTH AREAS
Shooting is the most pressing area for development. Viarreal took 152 threes last season but converted just 24.3% — a high volume with limited return. Her free throw percentage (64.7%) and 2-point field goal percentage (55.1%) were more respectable, but both came on modest attempts. There’s clearly a shooter in there, but the form and consistency are still developing. The key will be increasing her non-game reps under varied conditions — fatigue, closeouts, movement — to simulate live-game shooting. Just as important is improving her shot preparation: foot alignment, catch-to-release rhythm, and balance need tightening. Cleaning up these foundations will raise her perimeter consistency and make her a more dangerous spot-up threat. If that piece comes together, it could unlock a more dynamic scoring layer to her overall profile.
RANKING RANGE
Viarreal’s profile is built more on film than on the stat sheet. Her blend of playmaking, defensive activity, and shot disruption is rare in this region — only Kylie Marquez (Americas) brings a similar two-way versatility. She doesn’t need the ball to impact outcomes, and that makes her a scalable, system-proof asset at the next level — the kind of player who enhances lineups without demanding usage. In a landscape where most prospects rely on scoring volume to show value, Viarreal stands out for how she elevates tempo, toughness, and team connectivity without needing touches to justify her minutes. That kind of low-maintenance, high-impact profile is rare — and exactly why she ranks this high.
2024-25 SNAPSHOT
Gamer. Non-stop energy. Relentless aggression. That’s Itzel Caro. She was the intangible glue for Eastwood and, in many ways, their most confident player — even on a roster stacked with Top 50 talent. Functionally a wing, Caro played as a reliable off-ball guard and release valve for her backcourt teammates. When Eastwood’s offense stalled, she was often the one to break the cycle — whether through a hard-nosed drive or a fearless perimeter jumper. She came up big in critical matchups, especially against Pebble Hills and Montwood, making timely plays that shifted momentum. Statistically, she finished top three on the team in all five major box score categories — production that speaks to her all-around impact. Perhaps most interesting was her average of just 1.7 personal fouls per game — surprisingly low for such a physical, on-ball defender who frequently disrupted transition and wasn’t afraid to take fouls to stop momentum.
PROJECTING FORWARD
Caro will continue her career at Sul Ross State, now competing in NCAA Division II. It’s a strong fit. The Lone Star Conference is a competitive environment that will test and elevate her game. What Caro brings — passion, feel, and relentless connectivity — travels well. She’ll benefit from playing alongside and against stronger, faster talent, but she’s also the type to elevate those around her. It’s a mutual growth opportunity — a symbiotic fit between player and program.
GROWTH AREAS
Off-ball shooting is the swing skill for Caro heading into college. To carve out minutes early at Sul Ross, she’ll need to consistently hit spot-up looks from the corners and wings — the primary scoring zones in drive-and-kick systems. The confidence is there, and she flashed touch at Eastwood, but turning that into a reliable weapon requires sharper mechanics and higher rep volume.
Beyond shooting, there’s less to nitpick and more to sharpen. Caro processes the game quickly and takes film study seriously — rare traits at the high school level. With just 41 career varsity games, she’s already shown rapid growth in decision-making, poise, and adaptability. Her next step is to keep scaling those gains against college pace and length. If she keeps trending upward, she has a real shot to become one of the most productive college players in this class — not just because of what she does, but because of how deliberately she works at it.
RANKING RANGE
Leaving Caro outside the Top 10 wasn’t easy. Her intangibles — motor, confidence, poise — are elite. But Part IV includes prospects with either more runway as high schoolers or more polished production right now. Still, Caro projects as one of the most impactful college players in this class — and her trajectory is far from capped.